Historical Simulator Plug-in
Okay, we're ready to try it again. Let's get our data, better not forget to get our data. Okay, we're ready to go!
It's the next day, we've been pretty happy. We're looking to close out some of these trades, though. We want to start wrapping this thing up, because we want to put some of this money in our pocket. We want to go spend it now. We've made it, we want to spend it.
Step, it's coming back on us a little bit, nothing really exciting there.
Feeder Cattle, step, oh, nice move in Feeder Cattle, I want to see that Feeder Cattle come down and touch that market if touched and get me out of this market. I'm nervous, I'm getting nervous here, I don't like to be in the market. I want to get out of the market with this order. I want to put some of this money in my pocket. I have $1,300.50 in open profit and only $295.00 in close profit.
My greed is starting to take over. I'm getting greedy, and I'm getting nervous and worried. I'm starting to think I should pull my stop loss all the way in just above that stop point right there. Maybe I should pull my stop in right there. What if I pulled my stop in right there? Oh, nice and tight! Lock me in some profit if it turned against me- save all that profit. It might not get all the way down there, that's a long way for the market to go to go down and hit that buy (1) market if touched.
I want to save my money, right here. How much money would I be locking in if I did that? Oh, I would be locking in an additional $1,120.00. Oh, should I do it, should I move my stop in? It's gone down for a long ways. It has to come back, there has to be some retracements. I don't want it to come down any further. I want to get that money! Thing is, I slept on my pillow all night long, I woke up in the morning, that's all I could think about was moving that stop in closer. Oh, I don't know what to do. I don't know what to do.
I'm telling you what to do, what you should do-- you follow the plan! Follow the plan. Sometimes that's exactly what's going to happen. That market is going to retrace, come back and you're going to lose those profits. Yup, that's what is going to happen.
Sometimes that market is going to continue down. You can tighten your stop up, that's your prerogative, you can do that. But use your information, $1,000.00, you know, we've done some tests in here, $1,000.00, $1,000.00, $1,000.00, everything says $1,000.00 is a good distance to be back. That's what you're risking is $1,000.00. Okay? That's a $1,500.00 back. You're being very cautious there. You are risking more money than you need to, probably. But I don't want that thing to come back on me. I could move it in a little bit closer, probably, see that? I don't want that thing to come back on me. 38%, that's where I'm going to put it. Okay, onto the next one.
Step- now, that market jumped up again, we're going to do a little bit of control here, let's look and see if this is a nice downtrend, still. Coming across there, you know what? That's a nice little trend right there happening, isn't it? It's already kind of breaking through that one. Re-analyze a little, nope we're going to put my stop loss just above that point. If it breaks up there, I want out!
You know what? Look at this, look at what I'm seeing here. This is something that I don't do very often, I don't do this very often, but sometimes when I see an opportunity, and I'm going to show it to you right now. This looks like a nice little triangle point right here. Look at this, little triangle, see that? We draw that all the way down, see how it's hitting this little area of support right there? Triangle, triangle, we're moving this thing into an almost kind of a little pennant formation. You know what you do with a pennant, you buy on a break above the pennant, you sell on a break below the pennant.
We're not happy with our Gold contract now, because it's going against us. We're short 2. We're losing money, we're down $580.00. If this thing popped out and went out the top, I would lose that much more money. I would just be completely out. But if it pops and goes the wrong direction, doesn't that mean that's the direction it's going to go, out of a triangle?
Let's come in here into Settings. Let's do 4. What about that? What's that going to do for me? That's going to put me in the market the other direction going the other way. Right? Right?
So, that means we would have to come in here, just inside that area of resistance. We would sell (1) on a market if touched. Just above this one right in here, I would say right in here somewhere. Sell (1) on a market if touched. Get us out of that market. That's reversing your position. You're seeing that you've gone the wrong direction, if the market breaks out it has formed another pattern. See, we went off of the 123 formation, now it has formed a triangle formation, and it's going the wrong direction for us. But, not really, I mean, it's not really going the wrong direction for us, but it has the opportunity of popping up above that triangle point now and going the wrong direction. If it does, we're going to reverse our position. We're going to get out of the 2 that we're short, and we're going to get in with 2 that are long. We're going to look for this market to go back up and retrace all the way up into those limit areas. It's a way of trying to recapture the profit- the losses that we made when we realize that the market is going against us.
I don't do this very often because it doesn't often work out like this. But sometimes I do. I do it on 123's. Usually when it breaks above the number 1 point, realizing that it has broken passed my number 3, I'll reverse my order and go the other direction. Again, I don't do it very often but I do sometimes. This is one of the times that I think maybe we can try this and use it as an example, see if it makes us some money. See if it helps us, I don't know, I don't know. Let's see if it will help us.
Can't tell until tomorrow. You know, one tic a day, one tic at a time, that's all we get.
Lean Hogs- Lean Hogs- Step..oh, it's coming back against us a little bit. Go and do a little sideways thing here, a little sideways dance there.
Live Cattle- Step.. Oh, let's.. I think we made a couple pennies today on Live Cattle. Came back in our favor anyway. Still coming down kind of hard, kind of fast. You know, at this point, I think I might want to, I could bring that stop loss all the way down to here, and feel comfortable doing that.
Let's look at our Fibonacci Ruler and see.. oh, Fibonacci says down here, see, 50% says here. That would be pulling it inside the 50%. But, boy, this is getting a long distance. I mean, it's traveling a long way. How far has it gone? That one move is $2,200.00. When was the last time it did that? Maybe here, $1,500.00, maybe here $2,480.00, $2,480.00, $2,570.00; has this little spot here, this little spot here, I'm thinking that thing has to retrace. It has to retrace, it can't come down that hard and fast.
What does our Stochastics say? Well, see, we're coming down into the overbought region, or oversold region. Coming down into the oversold region, that means that market has to come back. It has to retrace, and that's of course if we get a Stochastics pop right here, we get a Stochastics pop and then it's going to hang down in there.
What that means is that market is going to continue on down a Stochastics pop. So, something we have to anticipate.
What do we want to do? Do we want to move that stop loss in a little bit? I think I do. I'll bring it down just above where we got in with a 3. Maybe that tic right there. Boy, that's kind of close though. I don't know, I don't know.
I hope I don't get stopped coming around that. Maybe if I do, maybe I want to pull it in really tight. So if it does, maybe if we're clear down- I'm getting nervous. Maybe I'll pull it clear in here, just above this tic. Then, if does turn around, and pops me out, and I save all that money that I would have had on a retracement. What if it only comes back up a couple- I mean, it's coming down pretty strong here. Momentum is down. What if it pops up just a little bit, like that and comes back down? Then, I would really feel bad. So, maybe I should come back up here, give it a little breathing room. At least above, you know, at least above those tics right there. Let's try that, we can adjust it. We can move it tomorrow, if we get scared and worried, nervous and upset; all night long and we can't sleep because of our fear and greed.
Okay, Oats- step.. what is Oats doing? It's not doing anything friendly. You know what, I'm going to- if this thing pops above that tic right there, I'm going to get out. I want it fall hard again. I want it to come back down.
Step..oh, Silver is not playing nice. I don't know, what does this look like? Does that look like anything to you? Is that what that looks like to you? Would you call that a head and shoulders? I don't know, would you call that a head and shoulders, or maybe you would call it a little triangle formation here, trying to form. Problem with the triangle is it doesn't have a lot of respect for that bottom line there. It keeps breaking through it. Unless you- well, that's not too bad actually. A little weak on the top side.
This looks very reminiscent of 2001 Corn. Where it was going into a triangle and then it had a head and shoulders in the middle of it, and then it dropped our hard, at that bottom. There might be a trading opportunity right there. We might want to sell on a break below that right there. Don't want to miss the opportunity if it is.
Step.. that didn't do anything for us, did it?
Alright, that's it for the day. Try again tomorrow.