Counter Seasonal Trends
Now, in this Track 'n Trade Trading Training video, I want to talk about the Counter Seasonal Trends. The Counter Seasonal Trends are when the market has a tendency to do exactly the opposite of what we anticipate.
So, in this case, for example, we're looking at the market, being a rally point, right here, in October. Then, a low point, down here in December. So, we're looking for a nice big blow-off of prices, right here. But you what? This market came in, Bulls 'n Bears said, look, we're going long, here. Which we kind of back off from. We said, well, seasonally speaking, we're supposed to be looking for this market to drop. So, in that case, we take a small position. A very small position. Because we're getting a Buy Signal from Bulls 'n Bears, which is, you know, telling us to go long. But it's during a counter seasonal trend, so you know, many of us might even choose just to opt out of that, altogether. Not take that signal, at all. So, we're like..okay, what do we do, here? Counter seasonal trend- this is where we also have to remember, that we have to use multiple tools, simultaneously. We can't rely 100% on the seasonal nature of the markets.
Now, the seasonal nature of the markets, I'm not going to go through and show you a whole bunch of counter seasonal trends, because, I'm going to give you that opportunity to go through; you'll find them yourself, within the software. You can go back and look in the Historical charts, and you can find some counter seasonal trends. But it's because what happens, is the market doesn't always follow the trend. Just because over the last 10 years, or the 15 years, it's had a tendency to drop, here; doesn't mean that's going to do that, every single year.
Here's an example of that happening right here, with crude oil. You can see that crude oil, is a very counter seasonal trend. Now, of course, right through here. Look at this, very seasonal. Just kind of a little, you know, sideways thing. This thing just kind of started going sideways, just like on the seasonals. It's very interesting, you'll see that the market will go counter seasonal, like this. Very strong, just almost exactly the opposite of what we anticipated. Then, it kind of jumps back into the swing of things. Then, continues in the seasonal trend, again. It's like it needed some kind of an adjustment, or something. Like it's back was out of adjustment, and it needed to be put back into place. Once it got back into place, and caught up with itself, then it starts following the seasonal trend, again. It's amazing how that works.
I want you to go back and look in your charts, yourself. Look in your history, and you'll see that. You'll see examples of that. So, just because there's a counter seasonal trend, doesn't mean- to throw the whole thing out the window. Because it might suddenly jump back into line with the counter seasonals. Whatever was keeping it out of line, some fundamental reason, or technical reason that was keeping it from going within the seasonal nature of the market. Or maybe it's just, you know, a very weird year; that's causing it to go out of whack, for some reason. Once it kind of falls back into line, it just jumps right back on the train, again, and away we go.
So, that's counter seasonal trending. You'll see it in the charts, and you can look for it, and watch for it. Beware of it, because it does happen.