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Historical Simulator Plug-in
Day Four
Video Transcript
Okay, we're back! It's the next day, we've come home from work. We've had a long day at work, we've been thinking about our commodities all day. We're not in, we're not short anything, we're not long anything; so we don't have a lot of stress. But we do have some orders placed. We're anxious to find out if any of those orders were filled.
So, the first thing we have to do is we have to come in, we open up our charting software, we have to do a data download. Pull up our data, get our data download, we dismiss that. We come back and we're ready to start looking at our charts.
The first thing we do is we pull up our Corn chart. We look and we go to advance one day, step, anything exciting happening here? Nothing in Corn, nothing in Corn. Corn is still just kind of meandering down that channel, and making a small retracement here. We're looking for a 123 bottom formation of some kind, possibly.
Let's look at our Stochastics. Stochastics aren't giving us any indication- says we're a little low. Should be coming back a little bit, but nothing exciting there.
Okay, let's go on to Feeder Cattle. Feeder Cattle we get to step forward one day...oh! Just kind of wandering sideways a little on us. Nothing exciting there. I don't see any reason why I need to place an order yet. Unless I want to, you know, we could come in here and look at this little narrow sideways channel, look at this little thing happening. It's tiny, it's a tiny little channel. We might want to wait a day or two and see, you know, if we want to trade this little channel. Or maybe you want to break down and out of this little triangle. What if this is just a little hesitation and it's going to continue on down? Maybe we want to, maybe we want to place an order to sell on a break below this little channel. Does that look good to you? I hear some of you saying, 'Yeah, that sounds great; let's do that!' I hear some of you saying, 'No, no, I don't want to do that.'
Let's go ahead and throw a little order in there, just for kicks and variety. Might as well, throw one on a break below that little channel. We can sell maybe- what do we have here? We have one and two areas of resistance. So, let's sell two on a Stop. Hit Okay. We're going to buy one back, now I don't want to be below that area of resistance, remember. I don't want it to go passed it, it's hard to push through, it's easy to come close to it. So, we're going to put on the inside, we're going to buy one back on a market, if touched. We'll do another down here, I don't want it to go passed it. I want it to come down close to it. So buy one on a market if touched. That would get me completely out of the market.
Now, risk/reward calculator- Here's our- if this drops and comes in I'm only looking for it to come down. Now, generally now as sideways channels, you can buy on a break above, too. We could do that if we wanted to. But I'm looking for this thing to come down out of a break down, out of this triangle formation. It came out of it, so I'm expecting it to continue down, a little bit.
Let's pull up our Stochastics, and we'll look at them. Oh, look at that! Stochastics are really low. Hmm..that's telling that- that should drop, it should bounce up out of there with our Stochastics. No, I don't want to do that, though. I'm still thinking that this is going to be on it's way down, so I"m not going to ignore my Stochastics.
Okay, so we're going to look here, and we're going to look for a retracement. Maybe on the first here, and the second one back here. So, did we advance our chart here, already? We did, right? 3, 5, yes so can't advance our chart until tomorrow.
So, let's leave this one here. We're going to buy on this one, sell two, buy one, buy one. I'm not looking for this market to come back. I'm thinking if it pops up and comes back, it's not going to pop up and go very far, because I think it's already made its retracement. I don't know, let's watch and see. All we can do is find out tomorrow. There's nothing we can do about it today. We can sit and over analyze the heck out of it.
Gold, we can step forward one day. Step, oh, nice drop in Gold. That's giving us what we're looking for. This is a nice little 123 top formation, we're looking for a break below that number two point. If you go short, make us a little bit of money. Nothing else we can do, though.We have our tic for the day. 50% level, nothing there for us. So, what do you do at this point? Not a whole lot. Sit around and try to decide if that's what we really want to do, but how about Lean Hogs. Step forward, oh, nice drop in Lean Hogs, that's just what we're looking for. A nice little retracement on that head and shoulders. We're looking for that thing to fill on a break below that neckline. It didn't do it this time for us, but maybe tomorrow. So, what else can we do today? I don't know, we can we can question ourselves. Looking at our Stochastics. is this really what I wanted to do? This is my risk/reward, double check everything, sell three on a stop, buy one on a market if touched, buy one on a market if touched, buy one on a market if touched, buy one on a market if touched. Is that really what I want to do? We can recalculate my profit, wow, if I got in there with one contract like that, had to make $460, if I had another one and it went all the way to here, $980.00. If I had another contract and it went all the way to the bottom, where I'm looking for it to go to, that would be $1760.00. Two, three- I would be over $3,000.00, $4,500.00. Boy, I would just sit here and dream about what I would buy with that money. So you can do that, you know, because there's nothing else you can do. You have your 1 tic for the day. All you can do is sit there and look at it.
So, okay at this point we can come in and go to the next one. Step forward...oh, it didn't give us a lot of activity there. Once step forward towards what we're looking for, though. We're looking for it to break on a break down. We could sit here and play with this one and calculate how much money we're going to make, if our plan goes through. If we sell 3 here, and get out with 1 there. We would make $480.00 there. That's a good down-payment on a new motorcycle, right there- $1,230.00/$480.00. That's $1,600.00, I would be making if this thing plays out the way I'm hoping. Another one down here, all the way down. Boy $2,410.00, boy, I would really be happy. My wife would love me then, wouldn't she? So, I'm anticipating how money I'm going to make, I got my 1 tic for the day. There's nothing else I can do, so I might as well dream about all my money.
Alright, let's go on to Oats. OH, now this is Oats, this is where we fell kind of bad, because we lost an opportunity to get in on the market above the break of that little flag right there. So step our market forward, oh, look it's even up some more. Oh, but it's down from where it closed, so maybe I don't feel so bad. Let's go on to Silver. Anything in Silver? Let's give us a tic in Silver, Silver is still kind of feeding along that top thing there. I wish that would've came up and touched that line there. I would've felt better about this little triangle that it's coming into. I'm not sure I like this thing here, it's not really, it's not lined up with this one. It has kind of an ugly bottom, for the long side. It broke out here, it's kind of an ugly top here, so far. Let's watch this one, for a minute- see what happens. Let's look at our Wheat contract, step that one forward. Oh, look at that! A nice little jump up, it's confirming our little number two point. It's a little close there. 1, 2, 3, days. Let's watch that one more, and see how that one turns out. We might want that one to have our retracement back down.
But that's it! I guess we could, you know check with our Stochastics, see if it's still in our sold region, so it should be coming back, and that's what it's doing. So, we're kind of feel like we're on track with that one.
That's it! That's a day, you know you get your tic for each contract, you get to look at it. You twiddle your thumbs and wait for the next day!